Thursday, November 30, 2006

"Opposition" To Hit the Streets of Lebanon Tomorrow

Well, just as it appeared on LBC couple of minutes ago. The "opposition" called 8th of March issued a statement that tomorrow at 3:00 O'clock, next to Down Town, will be the beginning of the demonstrations in a democratic constitutional manner to force the Seniora Government into resigning.

Seems that the bourgeoisie from outside Lebanon (as in the bourgeoisie of USA, Syria, Iran, Great Britain, and others) are determined to do a showdown against each other in Lebanon. One side in Lebanon wants to achieve the International Tribunal to investigate the murders of the political figures between 2005 - 2006 while the other set wants to overthrow the government because they think it does not represent the people.

Tomorrow's demonstration is approved by Aoun, Nasrallah, and AMAL and called it as the opening of Round One. Aoun is willing to do anything to get the Presidential Chair, Nasrallah wants a government that loosens up on his weaponry, and Berri is simply bandwagonning with Nasrallah since he dominates the majority of the Shiite Sect.

From the other side, Harriri wants the International Tribunal because he seems certain that the Tribunal will "prove" that Syria is behind the assassination and slap it in the face. Junblatt believes he can overthrow the dictatorial Baathi regime in Syria from Lebanon, and Jaajaa celebrated couple of days ago that the International Tribunal will take place whether through the Lebanese constitutional institutions or through Chapter 7 of the UN.

The funniest clown, whom personally I am over fedup from him, is President Lahoud. Lahoud, who through the Syrians, pushed through to renew his mandate, specially several MPs then "changed" opinions just couple of days of the declaration of UN resolution 1559. Damascus insisted it was "pure coincedence." I clearly remember how the army beat the crap out of us when we went down to demonstrate against Tyrannical renewal and we were accused by Lebanese officers (and few dressed in civilians with a Syrian Accent) that we were Zionist agents (interesting?). The closest rival to Lahoud then was by the way Suleiman Frangieh (interesting?). That president anyways issued an order that the public servants should boycott the governmental commands and decrees. By the way, not that I really recognize the validity of the UN resolutions, practically the only resolution I used to demand (and when I was a kid) was resolution 425. Later, he denies that he told the employees of the public sectors to do so.

It is interesting that the Public Sector is one of the most corrupt sector in Lebanon. The term 6 and 6 repeated was applied and still does in Lebanon rather by the merit system. Each sect leader has his own "followers" to give them wages. Perhaps, the only two sections, that got away from it are the recruitment of the lower rank non-civilians in the Army and Security Forces whereby exams take place. Even privatizations do not solve much if the investors are also Lebanese politicians.

Stalemate on the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial levels between both reactionary camps

Here is the interesting part. We have a stalemate between both reactionary hard-core capitalist camps.

The President is openly a Pro-Syrian representative. Those who would like to debate about it have to keep in mind it was Syria that imposed his renewal after pushing his competitors away one by one, then imposed on a nice of number of groups of MPs to vote for Lahoud and the amendment of the Constitution. (Actually this what pushed Junblatt's feudal "Progressive Socialist Party" which rotates around one Sect and Harriri's Free Market block to vote for Lahoud and afterwards Resigned as Ministers which led to the formation of another Sunni feudal leader: Omar Karami). The president of course, sadly to Sectarianism, has to be Maronite, while the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Parliament have to be Sunni and Shiite respectively.

The Executive dimension currently is dominated by the 14th of March. It was founded when 14th of March in Alliance with Hezbollah and AMAL (tells you something when I say no one is better than the other), and afterwards Hezbollah and AMAL re-activated the 8th of March block, and had Aoun integrated in it). Now, there is one dead minister and six resigned:

2 for Hezbollah
2 for AMAL
1 in between both parties
1 Pro Lahoud
(Cumulative: 5 Shiite and 1 Greek Orthodox)

The government even though lacks a whole seven ministers is still going on because they are convinced that the only salvation to this tiny country is the International Tribunal, and that is the only reason they will remain on the chair. The other excuse is not giving Bashar el-Assad the pleasure to celebrate that it was he who crushed the Seniora government through his allies. Harriri already labeled Tomorrow's demonstration as "Syrian Cooked". Yet Harriri can't do anything about it and even as far as Bush since two massive parties reflect grassroot number of supporters, who are Hezbollah and Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, and that gives them the legitimacy to go down in a democratic form that would slap the United States. The overthrow of the government is what 8th of March is aiming. Yet, spectators are uncertain if the Aoun - Nasrallah alliance would continue afterwards since Aoun did this remarkable switch from calling Nasrallah in the US congress as Terrorist to National hero.

Legislative Level: Here things also pour currently towards the 14th of March and it is the last frontier against 8th of March. Even though the difference, with the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, between both Groups shrank to 9, 14th of March will use their number of MPs to support the Seniora government and give it all constitutional legitimacy. It has to be mentioned that the 14th of March got this difference with the support of Hezbollah and AMAL to 14th of March in Ba'abda - Alley district and two Northern Districts during elections in 2005. If, tomorrow's call of the "opposition" was a first step to demolish the Seniora Government (PM was called: Mr. Taxation during the Syrian Mandate) and eventually it is successful, then the legislative level would be used to withdraw confidence from any 8th of March block. This is why Aoun - Nasrallah alliance demand that there should be a "National Unity Government" because the end result, the MPs will withdraw confidence from the 8th of March government at the first chance they got. It is also interesting to mention that when the government first was formed, Aoun refuted to share in it and now he demands for one.

Last but not least, the Chairman of the Parliament, Nabih Berri is the head of AMAL movement, who previously in the past stopped the progress of the Parliament whenever Anti-Syrian factions attacked him and his allies. He simply left the meeting. He was elected by the coalition of his Party and his ally Hezbollah and 14th of March, who claimed they wanted to abolish bureaucratic corruption, so they elected him and hence he is a Chair for almost two decades.
He can be an effective tool against the legislative level to hinder meetings.

The Declaration For Tomorrow's Demonstration

The invitation to tomorrow's demonstration was announced on TVs on 10:45. It demanded people from all sects to go down to the streets and to raise only the Lebanese Flag. Nasrallah in two hours is expected to speak on TV about it. They informed the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defence (as any protocol of demonstration requires to be done), only difference our demonstrations used to be welcomed by 2nd Bureau during Syrian Mandate, and the ones bashing us were speaking either with a Lebanese of Syrian Accent).

Meanwhile 14th of March Accuses this Demonstration as Syrian Revolution

Specially with the Arrival of 200 Fatah Intifada militants to camps claiming that they are Fatah and attempted to take over. The refugee camps, ever since the Cairo Agreement in 1969, have been base supporters to Fatah. Fatah command in S. Lebanon said that the leader of Fatah Intifada in Lebanon Shakir el Issa has frozen his membership . This ironically does not take the priority of Aoun's platform like he used to yell from his five star balcony in Paris. Now, Harriri Jr. is doing it from his five star palace in Qraytim.

Moving on, such an incident and the timing of the demonstration has led 14th of March to accuse 8th of March that they are being Syrian puppies. Bush has been warning his buddies 14th of March that there is a coup. 8th of March has been insisting it will be a peaceful demonstration, and whatever follows would be also peaceful and within the law.

Bottom Line

No Capitalist reactionaries and Sect Leaders!
Both Camps (not to forget the reactionaries outside the two camps) are power-greedy politicians.
None are better than the other as their history would reflect their corrupted practices (Aoun included).
A chapter of Chaos and Turmoil are about to open unless both camps agree on dividing the Juicy cake in a more suitable and "satisfactory matter".
No Bourgeoisie outside the borders called Lebanon who are doing a show down in Lebanon to also get a better deal on the international level.



Renegade Eye said...

These last few posts, have been some of your best posts.

I'm going to send this post to Workers int'l League. I met the editor, and also the builder of the website "In Defense of Labor".

This post is what Marxism is all about.

MarxistFromLebanon said...

Thanx Renegade, to say the truth these posts have been taking me over two hours to do, I am trying to reflect what is happening in Lebanon from a Dialectical perspective, it is exhaustive, but got good news on that topic, will tell you about it later via email.


Renegade Eye said...

My computer died on me.

I'm writing from an internet cafe.

I sent an email to WIL. The editor I believe is in Venezuela.