Well, now Lebanon is heading towards a new level of bi-polarity. Today the Shiite Ministers distributed as follows:
Hezbollah Ministers: Two
AMAL Ministers: Two
In Between the two parties: One
Now the government barely represents 50% of the Lebanese as the largest Sect have resigned from the government as threatened in case their demand for a united national government. 14th of March block refuted to submit to any demands of the 8th of March.
We all know the demands are groundless from 8th of March as they are aware that Seniora's block will not step down. 14th of March in return have been phoney dialogue meetings while refuting to listen to the other. This takes things to the next level: Demonstrations in case real negotiations between both camps fail. Yet, neither camp is willing to the other.
Hezbollah, for the first time participated in the government ever since the Syrians withdrew. They were part of 14th of March alliance during elections (ie seeing the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah shaking hands, and even Nasrallah did a semi-fatwa to vote for el-Harriri in the face of Aoun's block). Hezbollah started as a 100% Islamic party and ended up as a grassroot political party with an armed wing.
14th of March elected Hezbollah and AMAL to government as they gladly accepted. The government during the July war became a legitimate target but due to US pressure Israel stepped down to bombard the houses of the ministers and most of Beirut since the government was Anti-Syrian. 14th of March refutes peace with Israel due to the racist government of ZIONIST Israel + the ongoing massacres for the Palestinians. Another reason for refuting peace is also the trigger of another Lebanese Civil War in Lebanon. Olmert is aware of that fact and that is why he tries to appear the peacemaker who is always wronged by those "vicious peace hating" arabs.
Nevertheless what is happening now? Hezbollah with their alliance with the Christian dominant force Free Patriotic Movement are gambling to either kick away Seniora or gain a larger share of the government.
Nasrallah's political alliance is also with Syria and Iran. When it comes to Lebanese politics, it is Syria who is involved more than Iran. So if the anti-government is blown away, Syria can achieve another political victory over the US-UK-Israel block (since Syria claimed Lebanon's truimph over the Israelis as its own while watching the Lebanese being displaced or massacred instead opening the Golan Heights).
YET!! 14th of March are not idiots, and the issue is not only related to the international court (to be established due to the assassination of ex-PM Rafiq el Harriri), on the contrary, they are sure that it is Syria behind the assassination and their arch-enemies' names involved in the murder would pop up one after the other (this is first scenario)
Second, to push Hezbollah out of the government while recieving weaponry from the United States (even though Iran proposed to give the Lebanese Army anti-air missiles against Israel's greatest military advantage: Airplanes). This would leave the government out of the targeted area as Hezbollah threatened today that any aggression against Lebanon (which includes the on-going Israeli breaches to UN 1701) allows the resistance to retaliate.
Third, the 14th of March are openly challenging 8th of March which means that they are gambling that street riots would kill the image of Hezbollah. This is not the case as simple as that, Hezbollah have the most disciplined organizations, but the worry to open such ways is from the supporters of AMAL since they got the trouble-makers (on street level); but again Hezbollah managed to force on all its Muslim or Christian allies to behave while demonstrating.
The problem is Trad Hmaidi took a decision that only a Hezbollah member can take such a decision, which is regarded with the universities (check 2 posts down) since 14th of March would be denounced as Zionist agents. With Hezbollah stepping down, a 14th of March would make sure that such a decision regarding foreign students and Financial aids is shut down (a slap to the Palestinian).
It is important to note that 14th of March are seriously aggrevating the situation by encouraging their foes to hit the street while 8th of March are well-prepared for demonstrations (as seen with Nasrallah's last public speech).
It is important to note that Hezbollah have been the first time participating on the inner details of Lebanese politics since their goal is to fight Israel. Problem is if they disarm, they will end up as a regular party, and Syria would be disappointed since they are their allies (unlike what is said as zombies) and balancers of power against 14th of March.
Tomorrow more details would rise... to see what is going on, this surely needs a round 2 post.
PS: The Proletariat are more divided than ever over here