Yesterday evening a political debate show welcomed the current Minister of Sports and Youth Ahmad Fatfat, Faris Sa'aid, and Fawwaz Traboulsi. At least Traboulsi expressed my views on the show. I tried to capture what he was saying as much as I could. These points can be summarized as follows:
- Both camps are relying on External Forces/Alliances and escalations.
- Situation is unusual: Prime Minister attributes himself to a camp and member of party (and hails his city whereby he could have proceeded with his speech without that) while the Head of the Parliament belongs to the opposing camp and head of a party.
- The majority of the Lebanese are interested in the topics least tackled by both camps:
. Current Status of the Non-Shooting Treaty (el-Hodna)
. The fate of Syrian relations
. Immigration of the Lebanese youth
. Current problems that Lebanon faces with geography: Lebanon is surrounded by two neighbors: An enemy and a "friend" that is trying to establish hegemony
- Both Camps are messing up on the expense of the Lebanese
- Seems there are two phase Settlement:
. The International Tribunal
. The Ministry Issue
- Both camps are escalating and what is worse neither camp is taking the consideration of a back door (Khat el Raja'a) to the crisis
- Problem with 14th of March that they want the International Tribunal to be active whereby they expect that its investigations would shoot down the Syrian Regime; henceforth, this causes too much pressure on Lebanon to handle.
- Ta'ef Accord is no longer feasible ever since the Syrians withdrew from Lebanon. The Taef accord focuses on:
- As regarding the topic of Hezbollah's arms: There is a big difference between disarming Hezbollah's arms and Hezbollah handing over their arms. Currently, the defence situation of Lebanon relies heavily on the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. There is no current formula on resisting the Israelis, so again both camps are not tackling that issue,
- Running to regional and international forces means failure to solve the intrnal problems. This is a problem and a sign of weakness since both refute to admit failture and face the problem.
- The problem about Ta'ef and revisiting it is important, because it is no longer a problem of the Parliament and sharing power. This is a structural short-run solution, the core essence soution needs a whole set of discussions.
- As for the current status quo, it can generate a settlement
- Problem with both camps that people are sick of the situation. Both camps are promising a largue explosive situation, but then they tell the people: Thank heavens these are tiny explosions. Even these small explosions are part of the on-going settlement. (Even Faris Sa'aid admits that this dispute is no longer local, rather regional).
- Final comment: When two groups argue that they can't settle the crisis internally, they are preparing Lebanon for a new civil war.