Friday, May 09, 2008

The New Era Begins...

Well, by 11:00, I heard AMAL took over Makdisi Street, by midnight I was aware that the Hezbollah/AMAL forces dominated over the Future militants, and overwhelmed them easily. When I saw Nasrallah talking on TV with a big calm smile, I knew it was going to be a rough night.

Lessons to be learnt directly

• Unlike last year in January whereby a huge chunk of the population was mobilized, Arms with Hezbollah and AMAL can be finished quicklier. Whatever area they captured, they handed it to the Lebanese Army after purging the Future, probably, Hezbollah were worried from AMAL Hooligans to get their campaigns a bad reputation.

• Hezbollah are here to stay without being disarmed no matter what under the banner of resistance, even applied on local politics.

• You can never have diplomacy from now on (not that the government was doing better diplomacy), if two coalitions reach a dead end, arms will be the name of the negotiations, most probably will be won by Hezbollah.


• Hezbollah for the first time directed their weaponry to the inside under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, and hence the party transformed to a local militia party with foreign sponsors, like almost everyone else. There operation was "freeing the Sunnis from Future Movement; I doubt it will solve any crisis by dismantling their movement's primarmy centers.

• AMAL Movement, based on their ground performance yesterday, are highly trained in guerrilla warfare, unlike being loose Orcs in the 1980. They way they swept through West Beirut, it shows their training on the ground to the extent of making them the second most powerful militant party in Lebanon. Of course though, it doesnt mean that their hooligans didnt forget to terrorize the majority of the residents they penetrated.

• What Hezbollah planned, it was achieved: a quick military victory in West Beirut over the Future Movement before they can re-organize themselves, and witness the rise of the Cantons. Yet, it was expected against by a party that was capable of defeat the Israeli Infantry side with their supreme military, not to forget they were accompanied with AMAL.

• Hassan Nasrallah's plan was unveiled: Blame everything on Walid Junblatt in his speech, and go after Future Movement and disarm them from everything, and deliver them to the Lebanese Army as if they were criminals. Now, Walid Junblatt is accused to drag Harriri Jr. to this mess by a lot of 14th of Marchers: hence = Divide and Conquer.The total obliteration of Future to the extent of burning to the ground their station and cutting all broadcasting machinary showed to what extent they targeted Future Movement. More to the point, if it wasnt a Sunni Shiite collission then what was it? Misunderstanding?

• Hezbollah and AMAL made sure to enter different areas of West Beirut wherever there were Sunnis and even uproot their snipers with minimum civilian casualties.

• The Media of AMAL and Hezbollah (and Future before closed down by AMAL then burnt down) were behaving as if they were in a war with the Israelis. Wherever front they won, they behaved as if they defeated the Israelis, and not realizing that these are Lebanese people like them.

• Anyone opposing Hezbollah is called Israeli, and anyone supporting the government is called Iranian (we dropped now the use of American and Syrian).

• The government is on its own, all the money spent in purchasing arms to impose some power on Hezbollah and the Opposition proved futile.

• Not anyone who oppose Hezbollah means in defecto they are US citizens, and vice versa, Iranian.

• NBN media is asking people to celebrate about it on TV: "It should have taken earlier to take out the crisis between the Sunnis and Shiites", how by demolishing their leaders without solving anything on the system?

• Walid Junblatt had to seek Berri's permission for survival and then go attack the Opposition

• If the US were depends on a civil war, they miscalculated.

Based on what we have seen (and probably the 14th of March figureheads were lucky), the followers suffer while the leaders live respected and honored.

Now,

I have two flashbacks:

• When a tiny truck came wondering selling bread instead of the supermarkets (again war images)

• When the old dominant political party during the war was in control, there flags are back again.

Sad Event:

While My family member was doing her coffee, an AMAL militant saw her, and aimed an RPJ on her balcony.

13 comments:

lalebanessa said...

You are wrong MFl, Nassrallah miscalculated, he did not engender hatred for Jumblat who stayed in Beirut with the Beiruties, he engendered never to be forgotten hatred towards himself and Hizballah by the people of Beirut.

And MFL, there are no such things as "minimal" deaths, every death is a maximum tragedy for the families of those who died. the deaths of civilians who have nothing to do with the "bajam" in the streets and their weapons are doubly tragic.

sphinx said...

MFL thanks for reporting, I am trying to follow the events as best I can.

adiamondinsunlight said...

My God, MFI - is your relative alright?

MarxistFromLebanon said...

well in my area, it was handed over to one of the militias pro opposition. To be honest, I prefer these guys than Amal lunatics.

Yeah yeah, I saw couple of bullets myself,and our area witnessed heavy clashes, not a horrifying site for me, lived it in worse situation after 10 years of militia cantone (plus 5 confrontations with Israel bombing our neighborhood)

what scared us most is the issue of snipers, and how the opposition replied on snipers: RPGs

Liliane said...

Good analysis! I agree with everything you said!

Is your relative alright?

Arab Democracy said...

Dear MFL

Reading your analysis I notice some mixed feelings and confusion on the correct position to adopt in this situation. And to be honest I think many of those who have tried to keep a rational approach away from the sectarian polarization are in the same position.

The take home message as far as I am concerned is that when the guns take over, regardless of our sympathies,words like ours have no place.And that is why we should be against the use of violence means by whoever in this conflict.


Regards

Joseph

www.arabdemocracy.com

ghkj said...

Today is the gold für wow second day of 2009 ,world of warcraft gold it also a mesos special for me .cheap wow gold Because i have cheap maplestory mesos a chance to go to an english speech of LiYang and crazy to learn english follow him . He is a firendly,kindly person who make me feel good.wow gold kaufen What‘s more ,maple story mesos he very confidence .And he make me sure what he can do i also can do,as long as i make a determination and force myself to do it every second,Crazy just like him .wow geld I learn one setence from his book ever :maple story items If you want to succeed always force yourself to do more .I can't agree more with him .wow gold farmen To be honest ,when i was a littel girl i already fall in love with english.But what a pity i am poor in english ,Maple Story Account and it make me feel frustrating .So i want to give up many times ,but i can't as i still love it .So i tell mysefl :if you think you can you can wow leveling,and all your maple story power leveling hard work will pay off.wow power leveling Today i am very happy i can listien this wonderful speech of LiYang. I reap a great benifits from him .maple story money As he say :i am the best ,and every one can do it . world of warcraft power leveling Yes,i belive i can do it if i crazy as he buy archlord gold.Now i want to say :i will never give up.

Anonymous said...

After separate for one year, I can not leave you, leave Entropiauniverse ped . Now I buy Entropia Universe Gold again, I do not want to leave you, but at that time, I have no idea. Buy Entropia Universe Money
is the thing I want to do for long time. I know that cheap Entropiauniverse ped is your life. So I will try my best and do not let you pass away. In my mind, I think I Buy Entropia Universe Gold is the fate.

Without hesitate, I bought eve isk , in the game I can find myself. I feel lonely, but I do not want to talk with anyone, so I buy isk . At present, think the happy day I spend in knight, I am eager to enter it, and buy eve online isk . Own eve online isk , it means that you own the life of happiness. So I will not leave cheap eve isk . It is the origin of the happiness.

Anonymous said...

What do you know World of Kung fu Gold. And do you want to know? You can get WoKf gold here. And welcome to our website, here you can play games, and you will buy World of Kung fu Gold to play game. I know cheap World of Kung fu Gold, and it is very interesting. Do you want a try, come and view our website, and you will learn much about World of Kung fu money. Come and join with us. We are waiting for your coming.
Do you know that the wow gold? The players often forget to eat meal when they play the online games. In the game many players need the World of Warcraft Gold to up their levels. so they often search where can warcraft gold, I think our website maybe is your best choice. Many friends told me that in here can get buy wow gold, and here you can also relax yourself. so i hope more and more players come here to buy the cheap wow gold.

Anonymous said...

Do you know seal cegel? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy sealonline cegel and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these seal online cegel with his friends.
I do not like to play it. Because I think that it not only costs much money but also spend much time. One day, he give me many cheap seal cegeland play the game with me.
I came to the bar following him and found buy seal online cegelwas so cheap. After that, I also go to play game with him.
It is a very nice game silkroad gold, I like sro gold. You can play it silkroad online gold, you can buy the cheap silk road gold. You smart and buy cheap silkroad gold.

Anonymous said...

Do you know Archlord gold? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy Archlord money and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these archlord online Gold with his friend.
I do not like to play it. Because I think that it not only costs much money but also spend much time. One day, he give me many cheap Archlord gold and play the game with me.
I came to the bar following him and found buy Archlord gold was so cheap. After that, I also go to play game with him.
Do you know fiesta Gold? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy fiesta money and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these fiesta online gold with his friend.
I do not like to play it. Because I think that it not only costs much money but also spend much time. One day, he give me many buy fiesta Gold and play the game with me.
I came to the bar following him and found fiesta online money was so cheap. After that, I also go to play game with him.

Anonymous said...

Have you heared about a game which you need use Entropiauniverse ped to play, and you can also borrow Entropia Universe Gold from other players? But you can Buy Entropia Universe Gold, or you will lose the choice if you do not have Entropia Universe Money. If you get cheap Entropiauniverse ped, you can continue this game.
Have you heared about a game which you need use kal geons to play, and you can also borrow kal gold from other players? But you can buy kal online geons, or you will lose the choice if you do not have kal online gold. If you get kalonline Geons, you can continue this game.

feilin said...

I think 4story Luna changes my life. Because of 4story Gold, I meet a lot of friends. Besides, my friends usually give me some 4story money. I usually buy 4story Luna through Internet and advice from my friends, so I gain a lot of cheap 4story Luna and harvest in life.
Flyff is a very good game. Through buying flyff penya, I find fun in it. I am so glad that I can earn a lot of flyff money. Flyff cater to the taste of young people. With cheap penya, you can get everything you want in this game. So I like to buy flyff penya. For me flyff gold is not just a simple thing.