After three years of government and opposition media building up their masses, it exploded. It is no surprise that Hezbollah can overwhelm anyone in front of them, but it is still surprising that Hezbollah directed their arms to the inside of Lebanon, and in the case of Mt. Lebanon, their heavy weaponry on villages with citizens in it.
The army is taking over 14th of March HQs of well known armed parties, after the 14th of March party leaders surrender these HQs to them or else the Opposition will enter by force.
Aoun has been celebrating that he has won politically. Yet, all I see is a military victory while the politicians in their constituents will remain elected. Now Aoun seems to have been marginalized by the opposition. Now We'am Wahhab, who unleashed his militia on the PSP Miltia in Baakleen argued that he has won against Saudi Arabia, but ended up calling anyone not with the Opposition as Saudi employees, well to be exact little employees.
The government didn’t talk about anything called "their own arms". The PSP even has powerful artillery. They treat the other side of are entering their areas as non-Lebanese or intruders, like the case of Mosbah Ahhdab taking about invaders of Tripoli while he claimed that Future sent a lot of people from the North to Beirut to defend it. Beirut is not for the 14th of Marchers alone.
Now what does this tell you, this entire fiasco? For starters that the army is too weak to be the official executing force for peace, rather they sit and wait to see who wins and take over. More to the point, Aoun said it himself: "we are in a battle, and we have won", and then he adds that his side of the Christians "shouldn’t worry, only the areas in East Beirut should because they stir troubles." Excuse me Aoun, what about the people? More also, who made it God – Given to implement this form of resistance (which you called as terrorism in Paris), while sitting in the ground.
Now, I oppose Hezbollah, and never believed in this called "the Arab Cause" or "Arab Nationalism" but I do believe in people's resistance, does this make me a Zionist? The equation now allows even militants in my area to beat me up in order to protect the resistance.
Now the government lost a lot of its militia arms and was given to the army, but what about the Opposition? The army seems they wont disarm Hezbollah's allies such as the Syrian Social Nationalist Party or AMAL movement, or even as far as that little prick called We'am Wahhab who waged an offensive on Baaklin.
This system depends on figures who have hooligans on the ground, and only they have the true negotiating power. With Hezbollah sweeping victory, the direct war seems to be easier, but what about different insurrections from different cells? What about the people who think that their sect leaders are their defenders, and hence they became twice fanatic? Does the Opposition really believe that when NBN TV broadcasts that Walid Junblatt should give his reign over the Druze to Mir Irslan? It is not a trading card, if it can be done, then this card called leadership should be dumped to the sea; however, we all now that is not the case.
What about the rising racism? We already as active leftists fought racism against the Syrians (and Palestinians and Jews); however, the scenario now got worse. Nasrallah after the Assassination of Imad Moghnieh now uses the term "Jewish Enemy" instead of "Zionist Enemy", the Government mass supporters hate the Syrians because the banners of Bashar el Assad were hung out by Hezbollah's allies (I say allies because Hezbollah are too organized to do such sensitive mistakes in the field). Of course, the Palestinians will get indirectly the blame since everyone scapegoat them for the errors of Yasser Arafat during the Civil War.
Did Hassan Nasrallah really avert a Sectarian Sunni – Shiite collision? He just aggravated it by stripping the majority of the Sunnis their pride… and so the Durzi side. Does the Opposition really think that the Druz will abandon the feudal party of Junblatt? I think now the sectarian parents have enough raw material to stirr hatred in most of the next generation.
Now, the Parliament has proved to be a lousy show forums to show how much each party is distributed. This forum can easily collapse in case the opposition do not like what is going on. The Capitalist business technocrats, the Future, has the largest coalition in the parliament, now everyone voted for them are in defecto Israelis? To Irslan, Lebanon is not about Arabism and Resistance, or at least not this way: committing a civil war under the banner of Israel.
The militants in my neighborhood are still there. After the army's statement, they remained there and continued to decorate their houses. This what bugs me most in the situation, the militants and their flags. Their arms are next to him, but not in the wide open, and they are still there imposing their own security. I asked one of them why they are still there, they said: "because we attack a possible Future or PSP hidden cells to retaliate". What about their open cells?! This is their excuse, Bush's style of pre-emptive wars ? I am seriously living my childhood nightmares… my neighborhood looks exactly like 1983 and having flashbacks of people dying in back then.
What's next? News say that there are 81 dead so far, and the Opposition's campaign failed to make the Sunnis hate Harriri Jr. With such death tolls, now we have party vengeance. Despite this "civil disobedience" (which included the hostile take-over of Mt. Lebanon), life came back in different areas but tensions now are rising in East Beirut. A 15 year old has been buried today, thank you Opposition and the Government.