What's Next After this Mockery?

Ever since the July War was over, escalations rose between the Government and the Opposition loyalists. The Shiites (AMAL and Hezbollah members) and One Greek Orthodox Minister (ex-President Lahoud Loyalists) withdrew, things took a bigger U-Turn. People called Lebanon a proxy war between Iran and the United States; however, I tend to support the perspective on Lebanon's problems as not "foreign intervention", rather the system itself which paved way for foreign sponsors to enter the Arena. This perspective was advocated by President Reagan's top diplomat, Philip Habib, who considered Lebanon as a "last minute mosaic patch-work" and a cyclone which sucked all regional and international players in its never-ending mazes.

With the Opposition demonstrating since end of November 2006, after the one week of the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, Pandora's box was opened to a point of no-return. Both, the Government and the Opposition threatened with escalations and took stands that didn’t open a back route, which ended up with the military offensive led by Hezbollah, and assisted by AMAL Movement and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. By January, 2 collisions occurred alerting the Lebanese Society that the worse is yet to come. In March, Nasrallah announced that the Government would have collapsed sooner; however, the government was well supported by the International Community. The United States hoped that the Government can contain Hezbollah and gradually disarm them.

After the last offensive, the government and the opposition finally agreed on the nature of the Government (16: Government Loyalists, 11 Opposition Loyalists, and three selected ministers by the President – The Opposition has its veto right, and the Government loyalists only choose the Prime Minister). As for the Electoral Law, sadly the Proportional Ratio was abandoned, and instead of progressing forward, the 1960 electoral law (with several amendments) was adopted; it has to be noted that the first to propose this law was Speaker of the Parliament (and AMAL leader) Nabih Berri. I find it a bit ironical that Hezbollah bombed Junblatt's zone like the Israelis bombed Lebanon and Hezbollah. If Junblatt didnt go for the peace option, would Hezbollah have bombed his areas till he surrendered? (sounds familiar between USA and Iraq at the early stages of the second war).

Greedy Players

The anti-Syrian 14th of March Coalition, also known as the Government Loyalist or as dubbed by George Bush according to Blanford "the Cedars Revolutionaries", depended on the international political support, the Opposition depended on the military balance of power and their grass-roots that we saw in the early stages of the Open Demonstration. When the opposition almost agreed to elect the President (who both agree on and compete who want him more), one man was disappointed because he shoved himself as the "reconciliatory president of both coalitions", although he is the head of block in the Opposition himself: ex-general Michel Aoun. Now his dream won't come true, unless the next round he plans to nominate himself on a wheelchair.
Now, since late November 2006 till 2008, the Opposition set up their tents under different logos "protecting the resistance", "fighting USA", "Overthrowing the 14th of March Government", "National Unity Government", "We Want to Live... with Dignity", "fighting Israeli Government", "Wanting Dialogue", and several others. Ironically, the one that got the people's sympathy most was "Down with the thieves" and "We want bread" whereby plenty of anti-US imperialists journalists thought that this was a battle of the Poor Versus the Rich. After the latest "civil disobedience" which included the resistance directing its arms Beirut and Lower Matn (with the heavier weaponry reserved to the Jabal area, aka Durzistan). The opposition eventually proved that they launched their offensive for political scores, sending a deeper impulse of hatred among two other Lebanese sects. Why didn't the Opposition accept to do such a negotiation sooner in Beirut rather than do all that fiasco and murders. I would like to add, the ones that died are not just 65, they are spread among victims that died in the cross fire whenever the Opposition launched its open demonstrations in 2006; however, this doesn’t mean the Opposition alone was doing all the killings. Worse, Hezbollah never mentioned anything about their offensive, they called it "Peaceful Demonstration"

Now our esteemed self-proclaimed "freedom fighters", the Government, they said that nothing in the world will get them to budge from their decisions. Their liberal policies already led to this class difference (and not just for the Opposition, but also among their supporters), never also decided to step down on any of their decisions, never analyzed what they were up against, totally depended on Western and Gulf Support, and played a massive role in halting the country. Worse, turns out they were accusing the others of carrying arms while they were arming themselves as well. The weaponry seized from Future Movement (which NBN called the targeting of all Sunni pro-government locations that represent the majority of the Lebanese as "Freeing the Sunnis") and the heavier weaponry from Junblatt's PSP tells us that this is a long road for a solution.

Now, we see the Opposition sharing the government in a National Unity Matter. The logical question goes to al-Manar TV, if the Opposition is fighting Zionism; on what basis they are seeking "National Unity" with them? The Government on the other hand are fighting the executioners of their figureheads, well fine, on what basis you want a dialogue with your cadres' supposed assassins.

The last step is the head of the Syndicates Union: Mr. Ghosn. If anyone to be accused of ultimate treason to the Proletariat, it will be him. We all know what lies the Government and the Opposition are made of. Some of the comrades never expected that Hezbollah will turn their missiles on Mt. Lebanon, rather we thought it will be under his expected successor , Naem Qassem , because he known for his hardliner position. Yet Nasrallah proved to be a liar, and the worse of him is Mr. Ghosn. Ghosn's demonstration was hijacked by the Opposition to pull their military offensive and trigger these six days of civil wars throughout almost Lebanon. He blamed everything on the Government without shedding light about the Opposition even though the Opposition are to be blamed for the crisis, like the Government. All he still needs to do is to thank the Opposition for "protecting the demonstrators from the US agents, Future Movement." To hell with those General Syndicates. The irony is that the Opposition didn’t bring back any economical change. Rather, they spent it arguing on what street this or that town should be a political constituency. Do those who demanded for bread feel suckered? The sect-driven , or party- affiliate ones I am sure they would feel victorious.

One thing for Sure

Just as 14th of March blamed the economic situation on the Syrians Mandate, and everything rotten, the Opposition did the same on the Government. Now they both lost momentum. Those who will go down to demonstrations are the Sect-Driven ones (excluding the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, Lebanese Communist Party, and the Democratic Left; if they are still existent)

A Massacre, Breaching already the Doha Agreement, and Flushing the Civil Society

Both factions started already breaching the Doha Conference. This conference required strictly that both coalitions should study the Boutros Electoral Law Reform in details. Rather, now they are going to go and elect the President, get him inaugurated, and vote on the amended 1960 law. Now a question to the Opposition supporters, how do they feel that the ending of their tents in Down Town and all this time ended as a gift from Berri to Qatar, his token of appreciation to them. What Berri didn’t notice the opening a Pandora's Box, whereby we saw certain Salafi extremists attacking the SSNP and beating to death (or following the wounded and killing them in the hospital and mutilating their bodies.) The horrific videos were out, and the bodies of those 11 SSNP were used as a political point against Harriri. The Future Movement tried to blame it on certain extreme Salafis and condemned the Massacre. However, as well all now the SSNP, they seek revenge... and such a gigantic scale of a massacre will beget a retaliation (my expectation that the murderers are currently dubbed as 'the living dead') because they appeared on TV. The most logical part is the army (if it still has any pride after what happened) to arrest the killers who appear clear on the video. One man described the situation in a realist manner, to my surprise Samir Jaajaa, whereby he admitted they are supporters of the Future Movement who are the moer fanatic factions of the Sunnis, and admitted how difficult it is to control them once Future Movement are weakened. As a matter of fact, I think Hezbollah wouldn’t think of it, they need Harriri's business elites' friends to block Lebanon from falling to a worse economical situation.

As for the Civil Society, well they were knocked in a shock and didn’t know what to do. A lot thought that their years of "long-term projects", "democratization Lebanon", and "lobbying" went down the drain. Well guess what, it taught them two lessons:

One, no person can assume carrying his/her principles from abroad and just apply them in Lebanon without understanding its history, problems, and ignore the situation of the region.

Two, they spent quiet a while on law reform and hit the wall. The ones with the real bargaining chips are the key-players.

Three, if they want to spend so much time on lobbying, at least lobby for something correct, such as Civil Marriage, making the Personal Law (whereby each sect is governed in personal affairs to Sect laws), progressive tax on an individual level rather corporate because the corporate means the rich get richer, and the ultimate law to insure real democracy = transparency, and hence the law advocated by Junblatt Sr. in the 1950s "From Where You Have This". Of course this to be followed by the "Six by Six" norm in the public sector recruitment (ie for 2 Catholics, you get 2 Orthodox employees, two Druze, two Muslims...etc). Structural changes and emancipation from above can never happen. The only real solution is the workers emancipated to their causes despite class, gender, race, religion, and gender, and even Nationality (in reference to protecting non-Lebanese proletariat). Again, how can you have an effective Civil Society if the majority are politically affiliated, or without a clue on Lebanon's contingency history?

The only ones who proved to have guts were the Disabled organization "Lebanese Physically Handicapped Union" (LPHU) whereby they simply proceeded to face the politicians as they went to the airport with banners "Don't Come Back till You Agree" and "Shame on You!". Those organizations such as "Our Unity, Our Salvation", National Democratic Institute (NDI), and a lot uncountable others proved weak. They just followed LPHU to the demonstrations or attempted to support them. After all, what better message is seeing all those courageous handicapped on wheelchairs demonstrating against the Politicians' Greed?

Who Lost Most?

Well, Aoun! For starters, his ally got back into the sphere as Zgharta now became alone as a constituency hence forth we will see Suleiman Frangieh making it to the Parliament. He didn’t secure anything in Beirut, as a great battle awaits him down there. And on the top of it all, his "legendary sweep" of Matn is not secure at all, now that 14th of March in last year's individual elections balanced against him, and now he doesn’t have Michel el Murr as an ally. This doesn’t account for how the Christian street will vote after all those incidents. Aoun made it to elections as the man who promised the Christians a strong leader, mainly himself! With all those fluctuations, I even expect breaches elsewhere for Aoun, such as even as far as Zahli. In 2005 elections, Future Movement was successful to breach to the parliament with an MP.

Text of the Deal (as taken from Daily Star) as follows:

DOHA: Under the auspices of Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani and in continuation of the efforts of the Arab Ministerial Committee, headed by Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani, and the efforts of Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa and the foreign ministers of Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Algeria, Djibouti, Oman, Morocco, and Yemen,
And based on the Arab initiative to contain the Lebanese crisis and in implementation of the Arab-brokered Beirut agreement which took place on May 15, 2008,

The Lebanese National Dialogue Conference was held in Doha from May 16, 2008 to May 21, 2008 in the presence of the different Lebanese political leaders, who asserted their will to save Lebanon by ending the current political impasse and avoiding its dangerous consequences on national coexistence and civil peace between the Lebanese, and voiced their commitment to the principles of the Lebanese Constitution and the Taif Accord.

As a result of the different meetings, discussions, and consultations that the Arab committee had with all the parties participating in the conference, the following agreement has been reached:

1 - The Parliament speaker will summon the Lebanese Parliament to convene, according to rules in force, within 24 hours to elect consensus candidate General Michel Suleiman as president.

2 - A national unity government of 30 ministers to be formed. It will comprise 16 ministers from the majority, 11 ministers from the opposition and three ministers to be named by the new president. All parties pledge not to resign from the government or hinder its work.

3 - Adopting the qada as the electoral constituency based on the 1960 electoral law, but the qadas of Marjayoun and Hasbaya will continue to be one constituency and so will the qadas of Westrern Bekaa and Rashaya and the qadas of Baalbek and Hermel.

As for Beirut, it will be divided in the following manner:

First constituency: Achrafieh, Rmeil, Saifi
Second constituency: Bashoura, Medawar, Marfaa
Third constituency: Mina al-Hosn, Ain al-Mreisseh, Mazraa, Mosseitbeh, Ras Beirut, Zokak al-Balat.

The parties also agree on forwarding to the Lebanese Parliament the electoral reforms that were proposed by the National Committee for Drafting the Electoral Law, headed by former Minister Fouad Boutros.

4 - All parties will commit not to resort to arms or violence in order to resolve political conflicts.

Resuming dialogue over strength ening state authority over all parts of Lebanon and defining the relations between the state and the different political groups in the country.

This dialogue has already started in Doha and resulted in:

- Agreeing that security and military powers to be solely in the hands of the state and spreading state authority over all parts of the country so that outlaws will have no safe havens.

5 - Reiteration of a pledge by Lebanese political leaders to immediately refrain from using language that incites political rifts or sectarianism and from accusing each other of treason.

This agreement was signed in Doha on May 21, 2008, by the Lebanese leaders participating in the conference and in the presence of the head of the Arab Ministerial Committee and its members.

As for the rest of the Constituencies:

I didn’t have time to translate them yet to English, but they are taken from Assafir, and they are in Arabic over here.

One Last Irony

Isn't it ironical that once the Lebanese ended their dialogue, Syria began its Dialogue through Turkey? How come the Opposition didn’t react to that?

Last Speculation?

Will the assassinations of 14th of March cadres continue or not?

... And the Poker Round Table Returns

After all this shooting, and all this surging hatred; however, this round table is in Doha. It is ironic all of this bloodshed occurred and now a new bad case of amnesia will be imposed on the Lebanese Society and we will see a new re-writing of history, a la 1984 doze, if they pull it through.

Now why Qatar? Qatar, of all the Arab countries has the best interesting ties with all coalitions. For starters, if you focus on the Qatari media, everyday you read the Prince, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, sends to a country a letter congratulating the country for having "unique relationships" with Qatar. Qatar politically has strong ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, it has the largest military base for the US army in the Arab World (except for Iraq). They welcomed Israel's Levni and already had an open excellent relationship with Israel for the past decade. They also are on excellent relations equally with Hamas and Fatah. Qatar and the Syrians never had frictions before, and mind you, the Prince's "congratulating relationships with global leaders" has covered Assad. Qatar also has almost 20% of its population composed from Iranian Labor, and not to forget that some powerful business clans with Iranian origins (such as Ali Bin Ali Clan).

In Lebanon, things are different. The Opposition tagged the entire Gulf as 14th of March supporters that of course included Qatar. With Qatar visiting Syria, the Opposition changed drastically their attitude.

Qatar as a whole is almost the size of Lebanon with the largest gas reserve in the world (taking the size – quantity). Its population five years ago was barely 800,000, with expected the local Qataris to be barely 30%. Everyone in Lebanon expects a super deal is coming on its way.

Some people compared the Doha round to the 1969 Cairo round. Well, there might be similarities. However, there are different issues. Despite the fact the PLO had a country within a country in Lebanon, the PLO were par excellence Palestinian. Some would consider Hezbollah Iranian, yet I doubt that it is when you have over a million supporter in Lebanon. The PLO were supported by the Lebanese National movement then, but the Cairo agreement allowed the PLO to take control over the Palestinian Refugee Camps and transform them to military training bases. Hezbollah on the hand already have their arms as legitimate after the Ta'ef Accord, at least had till last week they turned their military to the inside of Lebanon. Hezbollah's legitimacy was renewed in the 2000 victory when they successfully kicked out the Israeli army from the South and considered their victory as "a National Victory for Lebanon". In 1969 also, both camps agreed to have anyone as a Lebanese President just to get rid of the Chehabist regime, let for two presidential periods under Presidents Chehab and Helou. In 2008, both camps agree on Suleiman head of the army as a reconciliation president. The 1969 deal eventually led to a national government whereby Kamal Junblatt was Minister of Interior. Kamal Junblatt's decisive vote allowed the election of Suleiman Frangieh because the Second Bureau and non-alignment policy of the Presidency no longer suited both factions. Ironically, the candidate who was defeated by Suleiman Frangieh Sr. was Elias Sarkis, who will succeed Frangieh in 1976 and become Bashir Gemayel's closest ally. In 1969, the details of the accords were not fully displayed and the Parliament, except for Reymond Edde and his parliamentary coalition, voted for it and later one faction regretted it. The agreement on Michel Suleiman reminds us of Fouad Chehab; however, Michel Suleiman is not part of the Chebist school.

However, I prefer the comparison of Doha Negotiations to the Riyadh Ac of 1976. Again, Fouad Sarkis was elected as President to represent the third line of political force, which was supposed to be the Chehabist rule. The Opposition supported Sarkis in return the Syrians wont impose any political restraints. More to the point, the Lebanese National Movement, prior of the Syrian entrance of Lebanon under the invitation of Frangieh , Pierre Gemayel, and Camille Shamoun, has overwhelmed the Lebanese Army and the Lebanese Front with the help of the PLO. The Syrian intervention was justified in Lebanon as a "deterrent force", but this not focus of similarity.

Kamal Junblatt considered the Syrian offensive (and the justification of the Arab World for it) as a direct attack on Lebanon's democracy and progressive forces, this is something that we have seen ironically with his son Walid Junblatt again accusing the Syrians with their offensive via Hezbollah. The Accords of Riyadh also didn’t tackle in details the PLO weaponry, because the Lebanese Army was not able to disarm them, something similar to the arms of Hezbollah. Now the difference is between now and then, that the Syrians did start disarming the PLO, as el-Khaddam clearly said: "Even taking away the PLO kitchen fork", until Egypt signed the Peace Treaty with Israel. Currently, Syria is negotiating Peace with Israel, while Syria's role is more recognized than ever in Lebanon. The resistance arms of the PLO and Hezbollah were both turned to the inside of Lebanon, while the Christian forces wanted to preserve the status quo of their political gains then and now (hence 14th of March Christians now, and the Lebanese Front then). Yet, unlike 1976 whereby two foreign forces existed n Lebanon: PLO and Syria, Hezbollah single-handedly can face the entire 14th of March militarily, and not to forget its allies: the SSNP and AMAL.

Yet, let us hope the new President wont do what Sarkis did, siding with one side against the other and increase the gap between East and West Beirut. Although the Doha Round, unlike the others, has all the actors and parties in it, hence time will tell what will come out of it.

The actors who went there, (taken from Daily Star) are:

AMAL: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and MPs Samir Azar and Ali Hassan Khalil and advisers Mahmoud Berri, Ali Hamdan and Ali Hamad.
Future Movement leader Saad Hariri and MPs Bassem Sabaa, Nabil De Freij, Samir Jisr, former MP Ghattas Khoury and political adviser Hani Hammoud.
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and ministers Tarek Mitri, Khaled Qabbani, Michel Pharaon, Ahmad Fatfat and political advisers Mohammad Chatah, Radwan al-Sayyed, Roula Noureddine, and Aref al-Abed.
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and ministers Ghazi al -Aridi, Marwan Hamadeh and MPs Nehme Tohme and Wael Bou Faour.
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun and MPs Abbass Hashem, Nabil Nkoula, Farid Khazen, FPM political relations official Gibran Bassil and political advisers Mario Aoun and Jean Aziz.
Hizbullah MPs Mohammad Raad and Hussein al-Hajj Hassan and resigned Energy and Water Minister Mohammad Fneish.
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and MPs George Adwan, Antoine Zahra and foreign affairs adviser Joseph Nehme.
Former President and Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel and party members Chaker Aoun, Walid Fares, Elie Dagher, Sassine Sassine and political adviser Joseph Khalil.
Zahle's Popular Bloc head MP Elie Skaff and MP Salim Aoun.
Tripoli Bloc leader and Transport and Public Works Minister Mohammad Safadi.
MPs Michel Murr, Ghassan Tueini, Boutros Harb, Jawad Boulos and Hagop Pakradounian.

On a side note, a demonstration was carried by the Lebanese Physically handicapped Union whose long was: "Don't Come Back if you don’t have a Solution" aiming at all the leaders of both coalitions and representing the demands of the majority of the Lebanese. The demonstration was staged on the Airport Highway.

End of Round I , Eyewitness in Dahhieh location (Update)

The government canceled its decisions, and they stressed that there is no winner or loser. Al - Mannar directly puts a sentence: "People celebrate in shooting in the air", and then recieve a call "the master of resistance won against the Israelis". this is not over, and Manar is charging up its audience still. This is not over , not by a long shot... not the way the Opposition is celebrating its victory and making the other half of the Lebanese as traitors. This is repulsive and disgusting the way they reacted instead of taking the perfect chance to make a true reconciliation on the grassroots level. Shame on Hezbollah's Mannar. This is the perfect chance to sort things out, but no, they had to behave as "victors over the americans", disregarding their "peaceful demonstrations" which divided West Beirut to Cantons (that are still here where I live), humilating the Sunnis and Druz, and use their arms against the Lebanese.

And of course, now heavy shoot-out in Dahhieh, they all should disarm. The government should also learn not to disregard the other side. Yet, now the Opposition are more disgusting than ever in my eyes... all those who died is for the sake of political points (and definitely not resistance), and yes let them charge up their weapons in celebration. let the Sunni - Shiite sectarianism rise more, added now with Durzi blind hatred. Now the government will promote to its supporters: "we provided a settlement, and look how they behaved."

Bleh, it could have been the perfect chance to do a national historic pact to solve everything!!!! And let us hope those militias would withdraw on the spot rather being unleashed to the point of no-return. This wasnt a resistance war, it was a civil war par-excellence. And those who argue it wasnt, then 1958 wasn't!

The news reported also shooting in Baalbeck and Hermel as well to open air, all Shiite locations, not sectarian? Of course not, these are Resistance bullets!!!! Each bullet is increasing its thrift!

Future TV reported that 3 trucks carrying arms were confiscated by the army. They were going to Halba for the SSNP. If that is true, why doesnt it appear on the Manar or NBN? Resistance bullets? If not true, how low the Future TV is aiming to cover up for the butchery up there?

Seems we are heading to a new Iraq!!! At least for now the bloodshed stopped temporarily. Let us hope Israel won't do its move.

An Eye Witness, for his own safety that trusted comrade chose the nickname "The Pen" wrote me as follows from there, describing me the situation:

"At 11.14 pm, and after few hours of the cabinet meeting, Seniora’s government declared that they will pull back the two ‘famous’ decisions. When Ghazi el 3arede was declaring that, shooting started to be heard. The shooting increased with time and it became strong. Then started the convoy of cars to fill the streets. Each convoy had a number of cars and motor cycles. What is nice about those guys, celebrating there victory is how they were stopping each distance, going out of their cars and motorcycles, and starting to shout “Ali Ali Ali” or “Haidar, Haidar, Haidar” and even the typical “Allah wa Nasrallah wl da7ye kella”.
Some of these convoys even had armed people in them shooting in the air each now and then!

These convoys are still taking place even now two hours after the end of the government declaration!!

And Nasralah stresses the point that it was not a Sunni-Shiite clashes !!"

(MFL notes: to be noted: Haydar and Imam Ali are two religious historical figures and heroes in the Shiite doctrines). Religion is the Opium of the Masses indeed...


No War but Class War!!!

MFL & The Pen

PS: Thank you again Comrade The Pen

Apolitical Intellectuals ~ Comrade Otto Rene Castillo

One day
the apolitical
intellectuals
of my country
will be interrogated
by the simplest
of our people.

They will be asked
what they did
when their nation died out
slowly,
like a sweet fire
small and alone.

No one will ask them
about their dress,
their long siestas
after lunch,
no one will want to know
about their sterile combats
with "the idea
of the nothing"
no one will care about
their higher financial learning.

They won't be questioned
on Greek mythology,
or regarding their self-disgust
when someone within them
begins to die
the coward's death.

They'll be asked nothing
about their absurd
justifications,
born in the shadow
of the total lie.

On that day
the simple men will come.

Those who had no place
in the books and poems
of the apolitical intellectuals,
but daily delivered
their bread and milk,
their tortillas and eggs,
those who drove their cars,
who cared for their dogs and gardens
and worked for them,
and they'll ask:

"What did you do when the poor
suffered, when tenderness
and life
burned out of them?"

Apolitical intellectuals
of my sweet country,
you will not be able to answer.

A vulture of silence
will eat your gut.

Your own misery
will pick at your soul.
And you will be mute in your shame.

(MFL notes: one day, one day, that day will come and I hope I will be alive to see it and laugh at them all. All power to the Proletariat). The Poem was taken from here
. For those who don't know Comrade Castillo, he was a revolutionary in the 1950s, who was captured alive, tortured almost to death, then burnt alive!

Amen to that Photo

It puts all key figure heads of the government and the Opposition, and the translation says: Leave our God alone (in exact meeting, but it means leave us alone!!)

I still cannot believe We'am Wahhab is considered a key figure.

MFL

Finally they commented on the Halba Massacre

till now (on 9:15) the Future commented on the Halba massacre which says coming from the Future HQ: That this was planned, and a second statement (as if forgot to add the first), that they asked their supporters to stay at home!

Well why dont they admit that , because Sectarian driven, all parties are losing control over their supporters? Including them and their sectarian charge!

99,000 lines only according to Fisk

parts taken from here

"When I turned up there yesterday morning, I joined a queue for manouche – Lebanon's hot cheese breakfast sandwiches – at Eyman's bakery in Watwat Street. I patiently waited behind four black-hooded gunmen from Hizbollah's allied (but highly venal) Amal movement only to find uniformed Lebanese soldiers representing the government patiently queuing at the next window. Law and disorder, it seems, both have to eat."

(he should check what Amal are doing elsewhere in insulting the women of the neighborhood)

"Marwan Hamade, Mr Siniora's Telecommunications Minister – and victim of an attempted assassination in 2004 – admitted he had turned a blind eye to Hizbollah's underground phone system but could no longer when he realised that Hizbollah now maintains 99,000 numbered lines."

"No, this is not a civil war. Nor is it a coup d'etat, though it meets some of the criteria. It is part of the war against America in the Middle East. "

Well they both have their sponsors ...but when two coalitions having their supporters (of the same national identity) shooting each other, then yes it is a civil war, Mr. Fisk. All civil wars in the past were not proxy wars, but a problem with the system, and the empowerment of sect. leaders. What is happening here is not just US Proxy Wars versus Iran's Proxy wars.

When the Israelis invaded Lebanon in support for their allies the Lebanese Forces and demolished the Syrian Army and the PLO (who the latter was supported by the Lebanese National Movement), the era of 1982 - 1985 remained to be called a civil war depsite the presence of a proxy war whereby we don't know how much each coalition is sucked in. I agree with a certain US diplomat that Lebanon is a cyclone that sucked everyone else into it.

Flashback!

I cant believe the term "Cross over to East Beirut / Ashrafieh" is back in our language after disappearing for 18 years ...

Respect the Dead!

Future TV is back and at the opening, Ms. Khatib gave a war-like speech and a triumph for the other half of Lebanon. They are broadcasting from Beirut Hall and welcomed 14th of March figures like Elias Attallah and Faris So'aid.

Harriri Jr. forgot to mention his own side of the blunders to arrive to such a situation and still insists that they are a harmless moderate movement and attacked the Opposition offensive. Al-Mannar retaliated with putting the Halba massacre after Harriri Jr finished his speech in order to ruin his moments of mini-comebacks, and transforming the clash between the Sunni Future and the glorious Opposition, forgetting that the majority of the Sunnis are Harriri supporters. Making the Sunni – Shiite more embedded and what's next of low blows each has for the other. I have to comment though, the Halba massacre was really disgusting and I got it yesterday on video via email. This will charge a lot of people, and of course, we are still expecting when the SSNP will retaliate on such a massacre. Also it is interesting how Harriri Jr. mentioned the Sunni residents as well and accused the others of a sectarian collission promoters.

As for the militants, they are still everywhere in West Beirut, but without the ak-47s and the sandbag fortifications. Now they have walky talky and walk in numbers. So far in our neighborhood, they didn’t wrong anyone yet, partly they are from the neighborhood.
MFL

What a Good Memory Ruined

I remember when the July War broke out and saw how fast the Israelis were triggering refugees from the South and elsewhere, everyone rushed for the aid of everyone. Some hospitalities were not as perfect or friendly, but they were there. A lot of people remarked: "Lebanon witnesses a rare unity!"

Now, after that victory on a national scale from the grassroots level, they are killing each other. The activists are pinned down in front of the TV and try to absorb how in less than a week we made it to this level. How many died for political scores...

The Government and the Opposition should be taken to the Supreme Court...

Roundabout from Daily Star

Day 6: Army warns armed groups to stay off streets by Hussein Abdallah

BEIRUT: Lebanon's army said on Monday it would use force if necessary to impose law and order in the country and prevent any armed presence of any of the warring factions.

"Army units will halt violations ... in accordance with the law, even if that leads to the use of force," a military statement said. It said the army would start implementing the order at 6 a.m. on Tuesday.

Fighting erupted again in North Lebanon on Monday, further exacerbating tensions after days of deadly battles that have driven the nation to the brink of full-blown civil war.

At least one man was killed in clashes between armed supporters of the Western-backed government and the Hizbullah-led opposition in the port city of Tripoli, a security official said.

Sunni Islamist groups in Tripoli on Sunday had declared that they were entering the fight in the city, where one woman was killed in weekend fighting.

Also Monday, a security official said three cars with Syrian license plates came under fire there, leaving three people wounded. Syria is accused of supporting the opposition.

Lebanon has been rocked by six days of fighting that have left at least 59 people dead and nearly 200 wounded in the worst internal unrest since the 1975-1990 Civil War.

Lebanon's ruling majority vowed it would not negotiate with Hizbullah under the gun, as Arab ministers prepared to send a team to try to end a feud which some fear could engulf other parts of the volatile region.

On Monday, Lebanese troops also moved into different areas of Mount Lebanon southeast of the capital after firefights between rival factions on Sunday left at least 36 people dead, a security official said.

Many people have fled the region, where homes were hit by rockets, shop windows broken and cars set ablaze.

Security sources told The Daily Star on Monday that 14 Hizbullah fighters were among the dead in those battles.

Opposition forces overran several posts held by Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Jumblatt's gunmen in the Aley district east of Beirut before Jumblatt agreed to hand them over to the army. Jumblatt had authorized his Druze rival, Talal Arslan, to mediate with Hizbullah.

Arslan said Monday that Jumblatt's men had handed over most of their offices and strongholds in Aley to the army, but said he was still waiting for them to turn in heavy weapons and arms depots.

"I will not be responsible for any possible escalation if heavy weapons are not turned in a timely manner," Arslan said.

Security sources told The Daily Star on Monday that Hizbullah gunmen also clashed overnight with PSP forces in the Chouf district Barouk. The sources said that 12 people were killed in the fighting.

PSP sources said that Hizbullah militants were trying to penetrate to the Druze area of Barouk before being confronted by PSP gunmen.

But Hizbullah sources said that the opposition group was on the defense when PSP militants tried to cross from the Chouf to the Western Bekaa.

In Beirut, there was an uneasy calm, although schools and some businesses were still shut. Some opposition barricades remained, the road to Beirut's international airport was shut for the sixth straight day and a border crossing into Syria was still blocked.

Clashes turned deadly Thursday after Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah accused the government of effectively declaring war against his party, and spread to other parts of Lebanon at the weekend. But opposition fighters withdrew from the capital's streets Saturday after the army acted to overturn two government measures against Hizbullah. - With agencies

Compiled by Daily Star staff


US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday praised Arab countries for rejecting militia attacks in Lebanon as illegitimate, but acknowledged that the situation there is "very fragile."

"I think it was a good statement," Rice said after Arab League foreign ministers issued a statement in Cairo on Sunday.

The resolution underlined the Arab League's "rejection of the use of armed violence to achieve political goals outside the framework of constitutional legitimacy, and the need for a withdrawal of all weapons from the streets."

Rice said: "It made very clear that the militias should not be in the streets, that to use force of arms against ones own people is something that is clearly illegitimate.

"And there is a legitimate government of Lebanon we are working with others to support and sustain it," said Rice.

She then called for all those "interfering" with a process to elect a consensus candidate for president of Lebanon to "step aside and let it take place."

Meanwhile, Rice also participated in a conference call on the crisis in Lebanon Monday with a dozen other top diplomats from Europe and the Middle East, her spokesman said.

Also on Monday, The White House expressed concern Monday for civilians caught up in fighting, and appealed for respect of the nation's democracy.

Asked if talks would go ahead between President George W. Bush and Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Sunday in Egypt, spokeswoman Dana Perino said there were "no changes" to Bush's schedule at the moment.

"But our concern is one, for the safety of the innocent civilians who are caught in the middle in this conflict," she told reporters.

"And we believe that the Lebanese deserve to have the democracy that they asked for, and the one that they voted for. And we are very disappointed in what's been happening, very concerned by it," Perino said.

"And the president, you can bet, is going to be talking about this while he is on his trip." - AFP

One Worry

What worries me most is that tomorrow we wake up and pray: "it is over", but it doesn't. I know it won't be 17 years of war, but my parents for everyday then lived the horrors, and every day they woke up prating that it will be over.

MFL

Hajj Hussein Khalil and Conspiracy Theory on Bush

The Political deputy of Nasrallah Hajj Khalil turned the story as if "we saved Beirut from a crisis", suddenly me and the comrades looked at each other and one said: "what, should we say thank you?"

Khalil didnt tackle anything except that their "peaceful demonstration is on-going, and then they will think of ways to escalate with the Opposition." If that is a peaceful demonstration, I sure dont want to see escalation. He also acknowledged how he abused the Syndicates' demonstration and sought "to protect their beloved Beirut". Not to sound a 14th of Marcher, but didn't the Harriris sweep beirut 100% since 2000 in all three districts? Now I am offensive about Hezbollah for Nasrallah breaking his word, and did target civilians with heavy artillary. Why didnt he explain why his party proceeded to Jabal heartlands.

As Mannar TV, it is worrying me. After they annhilated the Future Movement militarily in Beirut, then displaced all documentary making Harriri Jr. to be 100% a US puppet. Then they displayed Akram Chehayeb in 1982 before proceeding to the Mt. Lebanon (but forgot how Junblatt was the Syrian's spearhead to oust the Lebanese Forces from Mt. Lebanon, or how Yasser Arafat trusted Junblatt in 1982). BTW, Berri met with the acting embassador, why al-Manar doesnt build a zillion theory about it. Back to the main point, now they are putting Jaajaa's past (which been yelling a zillion times about it, and even more on Bashir Gemayel), but the timing is not good at all? Are they aiming for anything more? Aoun's speech wasnt optimistic as well.

As for Bush, well seems to me he is aggravating the scenario for Prime Minister Seniora. It really sounds illogical to send back the USS Cole till the Lebanese Army takes over back Beirut. And to state it how he likes Seniora is even burning him to the ground? What are they trying to do, burn Seniora to the ground so that they can have more excuses to bombard Iran in order to "protect the Cedars Revolution?". We both know the US wont send any soldiers, and wouldnt dare to after the last time. So I guess they are trying to make a "democracy martyr" from Seniora. My second scenario in Bush is he wants to go down in history as the man who pushed the people to go down and demonstrate for their freedom to push the Syrians out, and now he is their defender. And guess to what channel, the Opposition's arch-enemy: Al-Arrabyia

We'am Wahhab was so cocky today, even Hajj Khalil said: "it is his personal opinion, and we do not think that way."

And what has been achieved?

After three years of government and opposition media building up their masses, it exploded. It is no surprise that Hezbollah can overwhelm anyone in front of them, but it is still surprising that Hezbollah directed their arms to the inside of Lebanon, and in the case of Mt. Lebanon, their heavy weaponry on villages with citizens in it.

The army is taking over 14th of March HQs of well known armed parties, after the 14th of March party leaders surrender these HQs to them or else the Opposition will enter by force.

Aoun has been celebrating that he has won politically. Yet, all I see is a military victory while the politicians in their constituents will remain elected. Now Aoun seems to have been marginalized by the opposition. Now We'am Wahhab, who unleashed his militia on the PSP Miltia in Baakleen argued that he has won against Saudi Arabia, but ended up calling anyone not with the Opposition as Saudi employees, well to be exact little employees.

The government didn’t talk about anything called "their own arms". The PSP even has powerful artillery. They treat the other side of are entering their areas as non-Lebanese or intruders, like the case of Mosbah Ahhdab taking about invaders of Tripoli while he claimed that Future sent a lot of people from the North to Beirut to defend it. Beirut is not for the 14th of Marchers alone.

Now what does this tell you, this entire fiasco? For starters that the army is too weak to be the official executing force for peace, rather they sit and wait to see who wins and take over. More to the point, Aoun said it himself: "we are in a battle, and we have won", and then he adds that his side of the Christians "shouldn’t worry, only the areas in East Beirut should because they stir troubles." Excuse me Aoun, what about the people? More also, who made it God – Given to implement this form of resistance (which you called as terrorism in Paris), while sitting in the ground.

Now, I oppose Hezbollah, and never believed in this called "the Arab Cause" or "Arab Nationalism" but I do believe in people's resistance, does this make me a Zionist? The equation now allows even militants in my area to beat me up in order to protect the resistance.

Now the government lost a lot of its militia arms and was given to the army, but what about the Opposition? The army seems they wont disarm Hezbollah's allies such as the Syrian Social Nationalist Party or AMAL movement, or even as far as that little prick called We'am Wahhab who waged an offensive on Baaklin.

This system depends on figures who have hooligans on the ground, and only they have the true negotiating power. With Hezbollah sweeping victory, the direct war seems to be easier, but what about different insurrections from different cells? What about the people who think that their sect leaders are their defenders, and hence they became twice fanatic? Does the Opposition really believe that when NBN TV broadcasts that Walid Junblatt should give his reign over the Druze to Mir Irslan? It is not a trading card, if it can be done, then this card called leadership should be dumped to the sea; however, we all now that is not the case.

What about the rising racism? We already as active leftists fought racism against the Syrians (and Palestinians and Jews); however, the scenario now got worse. Nasrallah after the Assassination of Imad Moghnieh now uses the term "Jewish Enemy" instead of "Zionist Enemy", the Government mass supporters hate the Syrians because the banners of Bashar el Assad were hung out by Hezbollah's allies (I say allies because Hezbollah are too organized to do such sensitive mistakes in the field). Of course, the Palestinians will get indirectly the blame since everyone scapegoat them for the errors of Yasser Arafat during the Civil War.

Did Hassan Nasrallah really avert a Sectarian Sunni – Shiite collision? He just aggravated it by stripping the majority of the Sunnis their pride… and so the Durzi side. Does the Opposition really think that the Druz will abandon the feudal party of Junblatt? I think now the sectarian parents have enough raw material to stirr hatred in most of the next generation.

Now, the Parliament has proved to be a lousy show forums to show how much each party is distributed. This forum can easily collapse in case the opposition do not like what is going on. The Capitalist business technocrats, the Future, has the largest coalition in the parliament, now everyone voted for them are in defecto Israelis? To Irslan, Lebanon is not about Arabism and Resistance, or at least not this way: committing a civil war under the banner of Israel.

The militants in my neighborhood are still there. After the army's statement, they remained there and continued to decorate their houses. This what bugs me most in the situation, the militants and their flags. Their arms are next to him, but not in the wide open, and they are still there imposing their own security. I asked one of them why they are still there, they said: "because we attack a possible Future or PSP hidden cells to retaliate". What about their open cells?! This is their excuse, Bush's style of pre-emptive wars ? I am seriously living my childhood nightmares… my neighborhood looks exactly like 1983 and having flashbacks of people dying in back then.

What's next? News say that there are 81 dead so far, and the Opposition's campaign failed to make the Sunnis hate Harriri Jr. With such death tolls, now we have party vengeance. Despite this "civil disobedience" (which included the hostile take-over of Mt. Lebanon), life came back in different areas but tensions now are rising in East Beirut. A 15 year old has been buried today, thank you Opposition and the Government.

Media Vol. 2

If NBN accuses Arabiya of stirring fights because it is against them politically, what is it, any media against them are automatically Israelis? What about their way of coverage about how they are defeating the enemy or "freeing the other sects" or "defending the resistance?" or not even mentioning anything about their party, AMAL Movement, having arms?

What irritates me is how Oppositon media (Tayyar.org, Manar TV, and NBN) say their party militants as "Elements" (3anasser in Arabic), while the Government as Militias. They are both militias.

The government didnt comment about their own arms, even though no match in number or their use in experience, at least one comment is needed.

MFL

Quote of the Day: Robert Fisk

"What is it about Lebanon that creates these crises? Maybe at heart, it is the same old problem: to be a modern state, Lebanon must abandon confessionalism - the system which provides a Maronite for the presidency, a Sunni for the prime minister's seat, a Shia for the speaker of parliament, and so on. But if Lebanon abandoned confessionalism, it would no longer be Lebanon, because sectarianism is its identity; a fate which its children do not deserve but whose country was created by French masters on the ruins of the Ottoman empire. Ironically, the Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora now rules - or tries to rule - his nation from a building which was once the Beirut cavalry stables of the Ottoman army." Robert Fisk , taken from here

USS Cole returns... Again!!!!!

Doesn't the US Administration know that this is making things worse?

Now, the Opposition channels will have a field day to justify what they did in terms of fighting Israel ... bleh....

What can this lousy ship do? Blast the other half of the Lebanese? The opposition civilians? I think the US lost a lot of insight in terms of foreign affairs since the days of Habib, Kissinger, and the entire Clinton Administration.

I think they are trying to make it worse on 14th of March to go and make Iran look more evil, or even wack it to protect the artificial "Cedars revolution", I wouldnt be surprised because hey look at Iraq and their weapons of mass destruction!!!!

On the Media

Personally, with the absence of Future as a biased media, the only two who are deforming the facts are al-Manar and NBN. So excuse me my dear readers if I focus on these two in the short-run.

I tried to find the report on the ex-Mossad guy on how 3 years of intelligence went down the drain. Can anyone give me another reference other than Manar or local parties? I find it amusing on how suddenly they pointed out Akram Chehayeb welcoming the Israelis as they diverted their war on Mt. Lebanon's lower side. If they want to open all that, then they have at least three people who collaborated with them...

Why dont Manar show on TV how the militants are still scattered around West Beirut despite the fact AMAL announced they left the street. Back to the Cantons...

MFL

It Just hit me

You know as I was reading the horrors of Akkar, (and worried about the blogger Darko because he spends time there) and Future Movement tracked the wounded to the hospital and continued on them... it suddenly popped up for me why the SSNP burnt down the Future TV.

I know the SSNP never forget, so I think that is their way of paying back the Future TV after last year's January the Future Movement burnt their center in Tareeq el Jdeedi.

The Opposition Proceeds to Protect the "Resistance"

The Civil Disobediance mentioned by the Opposition meant that the Roads remained closed, and despite the army's statement, the militants remained. Twice I was stopped, but they were nice to me. They are people who live in my street, I just never thought they were able to carry arms so I guess they know me.

After the complete control of West Beirut, the eyes were aimed at Baabda – Alley, the Opposition used their heavy weaponry, while the PSP tried to fight back.

Eventually, Walid Junblatt decided the humiliation over the bloodbath. This doesn’t mean that Junblatt is an angel, but I do believe militarily the Mt. Lebanon is no match to Hezbollah. Junblatt called his arch-nemesis, Prince Irslan, to negotiate. The Latter agreed on the condition that the PSP surrenders his arms.

Now, one question, if Hezbollah's arms are justified as resistance, what about their allies, not to forget the Government.

One village reported to have begged for the Lebanese Army to enter, they stayed aside and received a nice share of Hezbollah bombs.

The battles and bombardments continue, this doesn’t mean that the PSP don’t have to fire, but not like Hezbollah's fire power. The latter think they are destroying the allies of Israel. They were supposed to have a seize fire on 6:00 and let the army take over , but the battles continue.

I suspected one day Hezbollah will turn their weaponry on the inside, but never expected it under the reign of Hassan Nasrallah.

As always the Arab League does nothing, which they declared an immergency meeting (which after 72 hours of chaos) and they just issued a statement: please stop fighting. Why thank you...

Breaking News: The Army Finally Intervenes to Resolve the Crisis

:25: MP Ali Hassan Khalil (AMAL Movement footsoldier): preaches how AMAL defended for Beirut (excluding he forgot how they opened three fronts at the same time with everyone), and blames Prime Minister for everything. He seems to misunderstood that what he did with this offensive does not include all citizens, while his movement's men didnt terrorize the region. His speech is that Seniora's Government staying all this time without the Opposition Ministers was the real revolution (not attacking the whole of West Beirut, and NOT TO FORGET IF THIS GOVERNMENT IS NOT LEGITIMATE, WHY HE WAS NEGOTIATING WITH THEM AS THE GOVERNMENT SINCE DECEMBER 2006). He is using the Resistance logo as God Given to do what he wants. He thinks that giving the situation to the army is a trick. He attacks the Government that the two decisions from the government have been taken. He thinks the problem is one sided from the Government. He accuses Seniora not answering the problems of Elections and National Unity Government. He attacks Seniora that the Government wants the Electoral Law of 2000. I dont get it their offensive is not a revolution? THE OPPOSITION WILL CONTINUE WITH THEIR DEMONSTRATION BUT THE MILITANTS WILL BE GONE TO THE ARMY. He didnt answer that parts of the civil disobedience part.

6:00: Reuters & LBCI: 12- 14 deaths after a huge clash in Halba (Akkar) between the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and Future Movement after the latter saught revenge on what happened in Beirut from 10:00 - 5:00. Sadly, those killed are neighbors belonging to two different camps. It started when the Future Movement decided to stage a demonstration, and a clash took place between them, and escalated to gunfire after Future Movement tried to enter.

5:57: The Opposition accepted to withdraw their Militants from the Streets and give it to the Lebanese Army, but they will remain in a civil disobediance mode (without explaining if the streets remain blocked or not). We dont know what they mean by that? Down Town Tents (or Camping?), The Airport Highway?, the Cut Roads? ...

5:48: Minister of Communication (and member of the PSP) officially announced that the government officially agrees on the Statement and added that everyone is losing under this situation. He applauded the Army's timing to announce its Statement after directly of Seniora's speech.

5:42: Junblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (that is not so Socialist) welcomed the Statement by the Lebanese Army

5:31: LBCI, Minister (and Future member)Fatfat argues that the government adopts the Statement, however, LBCI reported that rumours seems to think that the Opposition might reject this Statement. Fatfat repeated what Prime Minister Seniora said, that the government didn't yet take an initiative. The decision is based on Iran's embassador choice and Hezbollah.

5:24: The Army Leadership Sent a Memo to the Government requesting from them to backout from Monday's decisions ... we will find out soon, now it is up to the Opposition.

(MFL Analysis: Seems now head of the Army became the perfect President candidate ever since the Opposition reclaimed him as them, and the government seems attached to their decisions.)

5:21: Harriri, most damaged of the the chaos and his movement disarmed mostly in Beirut, welcomed in less than 5 minutes the Statement of the Army. , theoratically since MP Harriri accepted, now the Government should follow.


5:15 :Since neither the Government nor the Opposition succeeded in stepping down, amidst riots breaking in Tripoli, a massacre in a funeral (six shot by a lunatatic), and the death of 7 Hezbbolah members & 2 PSP, the army leadership took the initiative as delegated by the Prime Minister's speech:

1) General Shokair will remain in his position at the Airport till further investigation

2) The Army will handle the Communication Network of "the resistance", in a way the general public and Hezbollah's securities are not harmed

3) All militants are requested to bring back the situation as it was, leave the streets, and open all roads. Failure to comply, all security and army units have the authority to arrest them as these units bring back the security of the nation state.

This way neither the Opposition nor the Government's political powers were threatened. Today's death toll alone over 11 with over 20 wounded. At least the army is seeking to end the immediate militia canton crisis peaceful. I think that initiative should have taken place much earlier instead of transforming the crisis with a long run concrete hatred between the Sunnis and the Shiites, and of course before the death of all innocent civilians as well as to prove to us that the militias can come and control the capital anytime they want.This is a short run solution but better than nothing, if it ends the reign of the militias throughout Lebanon. This brings a facesave for both coalitions' leaders (hopefully for now). MP


The People have suffered while their leaders were unharmed…


MFL

Well, a brief description...

In West Beirut, so far no one went out of their houses at night. Neighbors hung out with each other. The biggests flashback was our neighbors in the top roof running to our apartment, I opened the door yesterday morning and said: "welcome, you remember the route to my room (because it is the safest from RPGs and Bullets)" They replied, it has been 18 years....

Today morning, life in our street is a bit better, everyone is going to check their stores, but life is still slow compared to the busy street we usually live in. Seems the army took over ...

We just heard that another Future broadcasting station got burnt, a station that broadcasts in Armenian, the Opposition are not stopping and giving the Government more raw material to digest and use it against them... the great divide increases. The tension is spreading outside Beirut, but no full scale offensive from any side.

The UNIFIL have been neutral in the South

MFL

A Quote From a Future Movement member

Well if the opposition thinks the rift is closed with the logic of "freeing the Sunnis from the Future Movement", that is one scary reply quote I got: "Let them see who will open their homes when Israel hits them again"

Will this be the new retaliation form of sectarianism? What about the business technocrats? Will they seperate according to region?

The New Era Begins...

Well, by 11:00, I heard AMAL took over Makdisi Street, by midnight I was aware that the Hezbollah/AMAL forces dominated over the Future militants, and overwhelmed them easily. When I saw Nasrallah talking on TV with a big calm smile, I knew it was going to be a rough night.

Lessons to be learnt directly

• Unlike last year in January whereby a huge chunk of the population was mobilized, Arms with Hezbollah and AMAL can be finished quicklier. Whatever area they captured, they handed it to the Lebanese Army after purging the Future, probably, Hezbollah were worried from AMAL Hooligans to get their campaigns a bad reputation.

• Hezbollah are here to stay without being disarmed no matter what under the banner of resistance, even applied on local politics.

• You can never have diplomacy from now on (not that the government was doing better diplomacy), if two coalitions reach a dead end, arms will be the name of the negotiations, most probably will be won by Hezbollah.


• Hezbollah for the first time directed their weaponry to the inside under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, and hence the party transformed to a local militia party with foreign sponsors, like almost everyone else. There operation was "freeing the Sunnis from Future Movement; I doubt it will solve any crisis by dismantling their movement's primarmy centers.

• AMAL Movement, based on their ground performance yesterday, are highly trained in guerrilla warfare, unlike being loose Orcs in the 1980. They way they swept through West Beirut, it shows their training on the ground to the extent of making them the second most powerful militant party in Lebanon. Of course though, it doesnt mean that their hooligans didnt forget to terrorize the majority of the residents they penetrated.

• What Hezbollah planned, it was achieved: a quick military victory in West Beirut over the Future Movement before they can re-organize themselves, and witness the rise of the Cantons. Yet, it was expected against by a party that was capable of defeat the Israeli Infantry side with their supreme military, not to forget they were accompanied with AMAL.

• Hassan Nasrallah's plan was unveiled: Blame everything on Walid Junblatt in his speech, and go after Future Movement and disarm them from everything, and deliver them to the Lebanese Army as if they were criminals. Now, Walid Junblatt is accused to drag Harriri Jr. to this mess by a lot of 14th of Marchers: hence = Divide and Conquer.The total obliteration of Future to the extent of burning to the ground their station and cutting all broadcasting machinary showed to what extent they targeted Future Movement. More to the point, if it wasnt a Sunni Shiite collission then what was it? Misunderstanding?

• Hezbollah and AMAL made sure to enter different areas of West Beirut wherever there were Sunnis and even uproot their snipers with minimum civilian casualties.

• The Media of AMAL and Hezbollah (and Future before closed down by AMAL then burnt down) were behaving as if they were in a war with the Israelis. Wherever front they won, they behaved as if they defeated the Israelis, and not realizing that these are Lebanese people like them.

• Anyone opposing Hezbollah is called Israeli, and anyone supporting the government is called Iranian (we dropped now the use of American and Syrian).

• The government is on its own, all the money spent in purchasing arms to impose some power on Hezbollah and the Opposition proved futile.

• Not anyone who oppose Hezbollah means in defecto they are US citizens, and vice versa, Iranian.

• NBN media is asking people to celebrate about it on TV: "It should have taken earlier to take out the crisis between the Sunnis and Shiites", how by demolishing their leaders without solving anything on the system?

• Walid Junblatt had to seek Berri's permission for survival and then go attack the Opposition

• If the US were depends on a civil war, they miscalculated.

• Based on what we have seen (and probably the 14th of March figureheads were lucky), the followers suffer while the leaders live respected and honored.

Now,

I have two flashbacks:

• When a tiny truck came wondering selling bread instead of the supermarkets (again war images)

• When the old dominant political party during the war was in control, there flags are back again.

Sad Event:

While My family member was doing her coffee, an AMAL militant saw her, and aimed an RPJ on her balcony.

Four Oclock: The Sweet Storm from the Heavens

It rained, and it rained heavily. Someone on msn told me it was an explosion, I heard one myself, and suddenly it rained… and it rained heavily with winds. It was peace with minor sporadic shootings that were going smaller in size. I felt this serenity emotion, I enjoyed hearing the sound of rain after 13 hours of non-stop of hearing nearby bullets and RPGs.

Sadly, when I woke up, the shooting was there, but we already realized by Midnight that AMAL/Hezbollah militia forces overwhelmed Future Militias. Yes, I did write Hezbollah militias, because for the first time ever since Hassan Nasrallah took over, directed his weaponry not on the Zionists, but towards Lebanon.

Also, the storm knocked out my internet till now, it was too risky to go to the roof top to fix it.

A Glimpse of the Situation and Tips in a State of War

Well, after General Secretary of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah spoke, heavy shooting began between AMAL/Hezbollah and Future Movement extensively. Shooting took place everywhere, in my street alone guns were shot. The neighboring street, 4 masked gunners came out and are still there. A lot of my friends reported that snipers stood up on their rooftops. Rockets were reported, and everywhere these parties are presents, a gigantic shoot-out.

I hear different shootout and explosions everywhere. I have 62 windows open on msn, the first thing I or they ask: hey how is it on your side?

I lived 10 years of my life in a civil war, ever since I closed the wooden doors of my windows, it felt like the war. RPG rockets are becoming more usable than heavy machine guns and grenade launchers.

Unlike the civil war, the world shrank in size. Two of my friends in Zqaq el Blat told me that they saw several masked gunners running in front of their balconies (both live on a first floor). Another has bunch of gunners in sa'yet el janzir shooting on Ain el Hilwi and vice versa. Earlier, it was rumored that Hezbollah armed men tried to enter Hamra. All media accuse the other parties that their militants are asking people for identification cards to know from which area a person come, then stereotype that person's party affiliations.

Such explosions last time I heard them were in Aoun's war with the Syrians in 'War of Liberation', I was 10 then. The echoes of the bullets, and mind you, sometimes you can tell how many people are shooting and if others are shooting back.

This is a full scale war in Beirut. What we are witnessing now is the rising borders of the militia cantons. Those who successfully maintain control over their streets, then they draw their new "national borders of their mini-republics". Now of course, with the presence of the cantons, it will be like a big chess board whereby one color signifies the government and the other would be the opposition. Reports of different opposing media accuse the other parties of performing "Sectarian Cleansing" whereby each majority would kick the minority. The site of refugees in Ras el Naba'a and Corniche el Mazra'a was repulsive, all political parties should pay them compensation. Now what to expect from militias when their universities students are using ak-47s?

Tips to those stuck in the hot zones:

• Make sure your doorman or yourself close the entrance of your building so that snipers won't use it and inform the rest of the neighbors about it so that their friends are not trapped.

• Stay put in your house, any moment masked gunners might come out and start shooting. Different fronts are exploding sporadically briefly.

• Make sure you lock your door, or even barricade it, close all window shutters, and stay away from them

• Shut all lights, you don’t want to be a target practice for a lunatic bored sniper, it is still risky even if the shudders are closed.

• When there is no fire, make sure to check out before going out to stockpile for necessity food.

• When moving in the street, keep looking left and right while walking with your back to wall, or at least the shoulder on the wall. In case you feel anything wrong, duck and put your hands on the head and neck.

• In case you sense some people are gunners, don’t make a sudden move, just behave normally and keep moving.

Questions to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement

Disclaimer: I dont support anyone

Questions to Aoun:

• If it is a political divide Mr. Aoun, why only the Sunnis and the Shiites are so far doing 90% of the war!
• Why don’t you work at al-Mannar, don’t you feel you are just a pawn?
• Everything you blame is on the government disregarding your greed for the presidency?
• Funny Aoun is justifying Hezbollah as defending itself and not a key player in the civil war, what gives?
• How can Aoun warn about something when he is part of it and was involved in the shooting last year?

Questions to the Head of the Future Movement, MP Harriri!

Disclaimer: Asking these questions does not make me a supporter of the Opposition, I hate them both!

• From where Future movement transformed quickly from a movement of businessmen to a highly organized armed group?
• Why were your allies, the other Sunni Groups, demanding the Sunnis of Syria to resurrect against their regime?
• Why ask Nasrallah to take away his warriors, but not taking your own as well?
• Why Compete with him on "who hates Israel more?
• Why contradict yourself by saying that Beirut does not yield to any invading forces, and then your channel says: Beirut is under siege?
• Why like Hassan Nasrallah, you don’t want a Sunni – Shiite crisis, but like him you spearhead a whole sect and like him, get your power from them?

The War has begun!!

I am hearing heavy gunshots over here and explosions, but cant tell from where... now we are closing the wooden windows , last time we did that was in 1990 , the final year of the civil war... a big explosion came out nearby... seems the media forgot here...

What we are witnessing is the rise of the militia cantons... and the maps currently are being drawn.

An old Quote

"Remember Class, remember my words very well... a civil war is three times more destructive than a normal war...the ones in the same borders shooting each other will show no mercy even to their own kin..." My History Professor, 1993

Questions to the General Secretary of Hezbollah?

Disclaimer: it does not mean I support 14th of March, I have tons of questioning to them as well:

Questions to Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah:

1) How did the PSP know and was able to reach Nasrallah's house with the French diplomat?

2) Shouldnt he apologize to the Syndicates after waiting for their demonstration to use it for his own causes?

3) Resistance is not God-Given as he sees it, or is it?

4) Is Nasrallah going to aim his weaponry to the inside of Lebanon if the government doesnt back out for the first time ever since he took over in 1992?

5) Will the government back out after this offensive without offering a face-saving deal?

6) I agree about the arms of the government, but what about his allies as well?

7) I agree about the corruption of the government, but why he doesnt shed light on his allies as well?

8) Why didnt he discuss the rising prices of food and living conditions, which his party was involved in fighting for the past three years?

I hope he would open the door for save-face deal soon, and not the new era he preaches as bloody...

PS: MP Saad Harriri seems he will reply today?

Liars and Liars!

Future TV reports that Hezbollah Militants are doing check-points and asking people for their identity cards; in parallel, Tayyar.org reports that the Lebanese Forces, Durzi PSP, and the Future are also doing check-points and investigating people by looking at their identity cards.

Future TV reports stuff not founded in the opposition media and vice versa. For example, Future TV reports how Hezbollah militants are wearing their gears and are barricading Bshara el khoury, while Tayyar.org reports that Future Militias are attacking this location or that. This is the peak of the media wars.
What I said last year came true: the no point return peaked. All are giving war speeches and riots are breaking out through out the nation. One stupid camp thinks they are fighting the Israelis and the Americans, while another they are fighting Syria and Iran.

Hezbollah escalated when the government called their bluffs. Hezbollah were cornered politically, and hence they needed the chance to expand their sphere. Al-Manar reports that social centers of Future turned out to be training grounds, Tayyar.org neglects mentioning AMAL's RPGs being used in riots. What about the ak-47s that they all have?

Now most of the streets are empty, everyone awaits Nasrallah's speech, but we all now that this is going to be a speech announcing the beginning of a civil war, or more like in their own words "civil disobedience", but with arms.

What is my fault or anyone's fault if these greedy politicians are not agreeing and we have to pay the price by witnessing ak-47s pointed on our heads from both sides? I fully accuse the leaders in the government and the opposition to bully the citizens since they are the minority who wants to enter a war!!!!

MFL

Armand's Carricature in Annahar

Written to the right: Workers' Demands
Written to the left: Political Demands

Mafias and Militia Idiots

The events of today show much each and every political party is organized for war. The realist perspective would be the Security dilemma: "hey they got arms, so I will have arms as well even though I am a lover of peace!" A Small Question though, if you take the collective number of the people on the streets, it tells you that the majority of the proletariat in Lebanon do not war, and only those pathetic rug rats wants to go to war.

Whatever a demand we have, now it is 100% closed to do a progressive one because It will be tagged as messed up 14th of March or lunatic Opposition (and my middle finger is dedicated to both parties as a matter of fact!!!). Excuse me if you are party affiliated and got affended in Lebanon, but heck, it is your fault for following blindly these disgusting repulsive coalitions!!!

What started today as a general strike taught us an important lesson: even though the general syndicate union demanded a demonstration today, it shook the government by simply demanding an offer and got the Ministers awake till four oclock in the morning yesterday. Now the important lesson is that a workers' demands can shake the government (a lesson to the leftists in Lebanon, specially those idiots in the neo-conic Democratic Left and the outdated Stalinist Lebanese Communist Party. Now, it is worth to mention that the syndicate movement (general one) is a fake one and a workers' movement; however, the notion itself shook the government. Someone might argue that the government was afraid that what happened today attempted to avoid it, well not necessarily. Those demands shook the government, not sufficiently because all of these movements are a hoax time wasting organization, but if they were really a workers' movement, they would have annihilated the government and obliterated the Opposition (yes, that includes Hezbollah and its 30,000 merry missiles).

Now thinking from a 14th of March logic, the leaders are having a feast. The past two weeks all types of reports came out that a nice profitable summer is coming about, and that is the Opposition's new war coming out. Now, more importantly the Government warned that the opposition will attempt a Coup, and now it fell in their eyes with all the sudden trucks pouring sand. Of course, our friends AMAL movement they are always loaded with arms and ready, like the Orcs, to wage any form of a shoot-out war.

What was supposed today to be a demonstration was hi-jacked by the Opposition. The Syndicate attempting to sound like the opposition, realized that it was too big on them, announced that they will cut the demonstration short till further noticed and briefly blamed the government instead of the government/opposition. Despite the fact the strike was canceled at 10:45 in the morning, opposition militias carried on their work while they were countered by government militias, first exchanging rocks, then Molotov cocktails, then bullets, then rpgs (at a one point).

Now why the heck the Opposition carried on the ground, to be specific the Shiite based parties. AMAL movement were active on the soft spots, usually should be symbolizing co-existence in terms of peace but now war zones while Hezbollah adopted the collisions politically? What sprang Hezbollah into such action? We just came out from a political campaign about Hezbollah having their own monitoring process of the airport and the kidnapping of an international diplomat "Socialist'' (one of them neo-cons) at their districts. The syndicate canceled, while the opposition in a planned manner carried on, and the government ground forces carried on in "repelling" the Iranian invasion.

What happened today, specially with the expulsion of the Future and PSP parties (both 14th of March) should the quasi ethnic dimension of drawing lines and kicking the outsider. Clearly, I cannot see the logic of closing the airport if people "want to protect the resistance). The others in Bekaa valley, the government forces closed roads leading to Shiite areas. The Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces officially defended their allies in each coalition.

Damn them all!
May they all rust in hell