By now, you should have noticed how our fine politicians are transforming Sectarianism against each other and call it "refined politics."
The "Opposition" has finally decided to escalated their "movement". Fine, this was tagged as Civil Disobediance, and again, it is fine. The Seniora government have been recieving financial support from all the Pro-US nations (specially those who Arab regimes that didn't mind kicking out the Israeli ambassadors) but again this is fine. Is it?
Well, of course not. The mere fact that each wants to dictate on the other demands is not fine. Some 14th of Marchers would say "Once Lahoud is out, Lebanon would be fine", others would say "Once the International Tribunal is over, we will be fine"... err... are they nuts?! The core problem is sectarianism whereby each sect gathers, like a stampede, around their sect leader because they are worried that the others would eat them alive. Let us face it, this is not about the assassinations, this is not about fighting US imperialism, this not fighting Syria or Israel, this is about each elite using in an instrumental manner Sectarianism to safe-guard their own interests. None of the Political Parties would give you the exact definition of Lebanon, and definitely none really care about their people. The proof of the matter is the ever-increasing immigrations towards outside Lebanon while class differences are always on the increase.
Eventually, if it rains too much, the arguement would go: "The Syrians did it" or "The Israelis did it". Now of course, notice who would support what slogan. The Sect leaders of 14th of March would say the Syrians (ie Harriri's Sunni, Junblatt's Druz, and Jaajaa's Christians) while from the other side you got 8th of March (Hezbollah and AMAL's Shiites, and Aoun's Christians) from the other. The opposing Sunni to Harriri are too weak to face him or limited to their areas. Again, if you sneeze, your allies would say bless you, and your enemies would say go to hell. This scenario applies to both 14th and 8th of March.
So escalations are coming to place. Funny that the 14th of March blame 8th of March for it, as a person who hates both, they both are to be both blamed perfectly well. None is listening to the other, and none intends to listen in any case. All those calls for dialogues are fakes, and all wait for the proper mediator to pressure the other to submit. Now, since both can't back-out, they are reaching the next level of escalations, which means there can never ever be a face save deal to satisfy both sides. This is no longer about Syria or the United States, this became about two sectarian camps proving their presence. The more blunders one camp does, the other's camp sees it as a matter of survival.
For starters, Nasrallah can gather 1.5 million, but Junblatt would call the 1.5 million as Syrian agents. If that is the case, then Syria really has one a hell of a budget to pay all those agents. Mr. Junblatt disregards (or aware of the matter) that this sect has been previously oppressed and tagged as non-present in governmental budgets in the past. The Christian duet singers (Aoun and Jaajaa) gamble on the fact that none was represented in the government during the Syrian mandate, and henceforth, they are the "real Christians" and each want to restore Christian representation to the matter. Now of course, Aoun's solution is a promise of a strong Christian President, Jaajaa's way is having a closed Christian Community with nice number of ministers.
Harriri's movement is the most of organized, it is a two-fold movement. There are the Sunnis who are worried of the "terrible" Shiites, but he also got the business men on his side. Last month, several business delegations visited Harriri telling him to end the crisis or at least diffuse it. Harriri can't do that because if he does, he will lose the only shot of integrating Lebanon to the grid of the World Trade Organization, and definitely his money will triple while the rest of the Lebanese can go burn in hell. Let the Transnational Corporations take over the Ministries via Privatization, and let the public sector employees be dumped into "Kingdom Come". Worse, let them dump their commodities and put the remaining middle and lower business out of the market. Or even worse...
The escalations are coming, as expected. None is listening to the other, and civil disobediance is on the road. Jaajaa would tell them to go home, of course, he would, since he is a Sect Leader himself and safeguarding his interests. To him, Syria is driving those 1.5 million. He is part of the Sectarian game. Some may complain that this escalation would put people out of business, to be exact the System we are living (100% free market system) has already put thousands of people out of business, and will continue to do so (currently with political help).
Nasrallah two days ago did mention an interesting idea, his massive numbers of participants, specially at night (in comparing his to 14th of March). But his intention is to preserve his arms, the government is not giving him a juicy piece-meal to decline his arms, and probably never will be able to with all the funding coming from Iran as well as the donations since Hezbollah won the sympathies of the Arab nation masses and muslims on international scales.
Now what to expect from this escalation? OF course, Future and al-Manar stations would display two different worlds. The politicians repeating the same words, and if this crisis continues hopefully a defeatist reality would come. Now of course, a Marxist defeatist reality is way far than to become a reality, the Lebanese Communist Party is not a communist party these days, and those who are being disgusted by 14th and 8th of March are just sitting in their homes. There is no alternative, and the majority of the Lebanese I am hoping will end up against both camps, but not from a marxist defeatist manner since their is no vanguard party to direct the Proletariat disgusted from both camps.
Check Sectarianism all the Way 1 & 2