By December 1st 2007, it will be the first year anniversary of the Opposition launching their Open Demonstration in the Business Trade Center known as Down Town. The tents have been open ever since, although most of the time they are empty and they lost their esteem.
The Opposition failed to oust the US and French backed Government, and eventually gained nothing so far from the entire operation except participating in worsening the situation (along with the government) at the economic, social and political level. The Political level’s critical level (call it Two Minutes to Midnight) may have soothed down, unlike last year’s December and late January; however, people still worry about Hooligans belonging to different parties might erupt anytime. The good news though, none of the politicians want that so far. So, what we have is the same routine of bourgeoisie corrupted politicians and sect leaders disparaging each other on daily basis in a ping-pong manner. Thousands of jobs have been canceled, and now the Presidential issue remains the sole driver for news to fill their empty 7:30 and 8:00 news.
Saad Harriri and Aoun met in Paris (which is strange though because they could have easily met in Lebanon, or chatted via the phone). Aoun is dubbed as 8th of March by the 14th of March (government) while Aoun insists he is a separate entity, but not to be divided from Hezbollah. Personally I think Saad Harriri should have given Aoun a nice check of money because he pushed a huge chunk of the Christians back to isolated traditional “Marounstan” logic. Aoun, as expected has been cornered, and it seems his own allies are abandoning him on the Presidential Campaign. Rather, they are using him to attain bargaining cards from the Government. This of course includes the two primary actors (other than Aoun) Hezbollah and AMAL movements.
Meanwhile, we heard from Akhbar newspaper that Hezbollah did the largest Military maneuver in its history below the Litani river (where UNIFIL are supported to be allocated). Neither the UNIFIL nor the Lebanese intelligence detected anything. Hezbollah’s statement to the Akhbar Newspaper was that they are just practicing and to send a message that they are prepared to face Israel. Can someone explain to me how the hell a resistance movement does a full scale military maneuvers and training without the invader? Statements are awaited to get full knowledge on the manner.
The 14th of March seem that they are still clutching to both Boutros Harb and Nassib Lahoud as their primary candidates to the Presidential elections. So far, the deadlock remains. Harriri acts as if he is the mitigating agent among the factions while Junblatt goes frenzy on TV. The foreign nations’ ministers, specially the US and France, argue that no country should intervene in Lebanon’s internal affairs, then they go visit every primary key actor politician in Lebanon. Syria isn’t that better, and worse is Israel. Every time they breach Syrian sovereign land, they reinforce the division that exists in Lebanon by promoting the Opposition’s logo: “Pro Resistance or Against”. Personally I do not see any resistance to US imperialism as the Opposition claims, all I see is a lunatic General seeking the presidential chair by willing to ally even with the devil, capitalists running the government, and capitalists from the opposition want to regain previous gains to distribute gains.
The funniest part is when watching NBN TV, they still refer to the government as “non-legitimate”, but if that is true, then how come it’s supreme president (Nabih Berri himself) is always in contact with the Prime Minister and his boss Saad Harriri.
On the other side, the government has covered better grounds than they wanted. For starters, the Future Block (ultra capitalists) has prepared the full package to bury Lebanon in the World Trade Organization. They already initiated the procedures of privatizations on the telecommunication level, and the people are going to worry about the WTO to starve them to death, and not only the 14th of March and Opposition coalitions’ corrupted leaders.
Most of the people are fed up from watching the same news (unless Israel does a blunder or one politician is assassinated). The headlines have been almost the same on daily basis, and people are more alienated than ever. Work already alienated the proletariat, sectarianism (along with fearing the other) remains dividing the Lebanese into two gigantic camps (then each camp to mini sects/parties), and now the chance to even hope/dream for a better situation is down the drain and discouraging.
These days, me and the comrades sit and guess the headlines of tomorrow’s newspaper. The sad part of the story, most of the time we guess correct. What is there to guess for? Jaajaa retaliated on Aoun? Aoun declared he is a reconciliatory president? Seniora trying to compete with Hezbollah about who is resisting more? Even We’am Wahhab’stupid speeches are no longer shocking or Elias Attallah (when sober) are also predictable. Junblatt’s disparage on Syria? Or Rice’s boring speeches about leaving Lebanon alone? OR who visited who? Or who wants a better a Lebanon? Or who stated what at Archbishop’s Sfair?
All of this fiasco and most of the Lebanese seem to forget a humanitarian crisis occurring at Nahr el Bared. Most of the Lebanese forgot about Nahr el Bared after Lebanon’s “War on Terror” was over with Fatah Islam. They totally forgot about the looting taking over up there. They forgot about the need to pressure the government to reconstruct Nahr el Bared after it was flattened. They forgot to stress about the need to provide alternate living standards for the Palestinians in exile (for a second time since 1948). They never wondered what happened to the relatives of the deceased; did they get any form of compensation?
Speaking of Fatah Islam, the army said they are linked to Al-Qaeda; however how come we never heard Zawahari mentioning Fatah Islam while mentioning every detail in Northern Arab Africa. Al-Qaeda usually issue statements about their assassinated Cadres? How come nothing is mentioned about Fatah Islam even though a whole organization was supposed to be dismantled to kingdom come at Qa’eda’s sources? Again this brings suspicion to two traditional suspects: Seymour Hersh’s logic that the US (along potentially with government) is building tiny terrorist cells to counter the expanding Shiite expenditure (even though over here the Lebanese Army suffered most in a military sense) and the Syrians who wanted to destabilize the country’s sanity infrastructure even more.
The primary question is: when the “seculars” will wake up and join forces upon a progressive platform to bind the country’s divided proletariat into one.
MFL
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The seculars, if they exist and manage to get together cannot do too much now. Look at Kifaya in Egypt. They tried something and then left the path to join those in power. People did not follow them. It takes decades, perhaps more than 100 years for societies to change mentality, to pull apart from zaims etc. Lebanon is a messed up country and as you well pointed out, there is no trust between sects/communities. This is the major problem. Without trust and a common agenda there is no people. Only separate communities.
Federalism may be a good idea, though I don't know how viable for the time being. If the alternative is more power to HizbAllah and the Shias they have hijacked, I say go with federalism or even a more drastic solution. My 2 cents
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